Bayesian reasoning in avalanche terrain: a theoretical investigation

Citation

Ebert P (2019) Bayesian reasoning in avalanche terrain: a theoretical investigation. Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Learning, 19 (1), pp. 84-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/14729679.2018.1508356

Abstract
In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I mo- tivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons critically. Lastly, I highlight a number of challenges for avalanche educators when incorporating the Bayesian perspective in their curriculum.

Keywords
Bayesian reasoning; avalanche decision-making; avalanche education; base-rate fallacy; snow science; risk management.

Journal
Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Learning: Volume 19, Issue 1

• Ebert Bayesian Avalanche Final