Modelling the initial spread of foot-and-mouth disease through animal movements

Citation

Green D, Kiss IZ & Kao RR (2006) Modelling the initial spread of foot-and-mouth disease through animal movements. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 273 (1602), pp. 2729-2735. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3648

Abstract
Livestock movements in Great Britain (GB) are well recorded and are a unique record of the network of connections among livestock-holding locations. These connections can be critical for disease spread, as in the 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK. Here, the movement data are used to construct an individual-farm-based model of the initial spread of FMD in GB and determine the susceptibility of the GB livestock industry to future outbreaks under the current legislative requirements. Transmission through movements is modelled, with additional local spread unrelated to the known movements. Simulations show that movements can result in a large nationwide epidemic, but only if cattle are heavily involved, or the epidemic occurs in late summer or early autumn. Inclusion of random local spread can considerably increase epidemic size, but has only a small impact on the spatial extent of the disease. There is a geographical bias in the epidemic size reached, with larger epidemics originating in Scotland and the north of England than elsewhere.

Keywords
modelling; epidemiology; foot-and-mouth disease

Journal
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences: Volume 273, Issue 1602

People

Dr Darren Green

Senior Lecturer, Institute of Aquaculture