Spatial aspects of climate change and effects on aquaculture in Bangladesh

Citation

Handisyde N, Salam MA & Ross L (2010) Spatial aspects of climate change and effects on aquaculture in Bangladesh. In: 29th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing 2008, ACRS 2008 Proceedings, Volume 2. 29th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing 2008 (ACRS 2008), Colombo, Sri Lanka, 10.11.2008-14.11.2008. Red Hook, NY: Curran Associates, pp. 848-854. http://www.proceedings.com/06602.html

Abstract
Bangladesh is the developing world's most densely populated country, with areas of considerable poverty and common malnutrition. Fish consumption as a proportion of total animal protein is extremely high making fish a vital food source. Aquaculture not only provides important protein but is also an important source of income.. These factors, in association with a range of geographic and climatic features, make Bangladesh one of the world's most vulnerable countries in terms of climate change and sea level rise impacts. Aquaculture production in Bangladesh continues to expand rapidly both terms of overall production quantities, and contribution to total fisheries production. There is a general consensus that the Bangladeshi aquaculture industry, and those that depend on it, face a wide range of climate change related threats including; inland flooding, storm surge flooding, salination of ground water, drought and extremes of temperature. The relative success of aquaculture at a given location in relation to changing climate is influenced by a wide range of geographic, environmental and socioeconomic variables. Combining these factors in a spatial modelling framework can highlight areas where aquaculture may either be at risk or potentially successful under future conditions and will provide a highly useful decision support tool for guiding future development. This paper outlines work currently underway that focuses upon spatial analysis of three key areas; inland flooding, drought impacts, coastal flooding and impacts of storm surges. GCM data is used to predict changes in rainfall over drainage basins that discharge through Bangladesh. The use of vegetation indices to highlight climate impacts are considered. Soil data and water balance models of both are used to estimate limits to pond culture and how these may affect production at various times of year. Coastal flooding requires a detailed DEM. All the above can be considered along with a range of indicators of aquaculture suitability e.g. soil, land cover, infrastructure, inputs, water sources, seed sources, expertise etc.