Lottery judgments: A philosophical and experimental study

Citation

Ebert PA, Smith M & Durbach I (2018) Lottery judgments: A philosophical and experimental study. Philosophical Psychology, 31 (1), pp. 110-138. https://doi.org/10.1080/09515089.2017.1367767

Abstract
In this paper, we present the results of two surveys that investigate subjects’ judgments about what can be known or justifiably believed about lottery out- comes on the basis of statistical evidence, testimonial evidence, and ‘mixed’ evidence, while considering possible anchoring and priming effects. We dis- cuss these results in light of seven distinct hypotheses that capture various claims made by philosophers about lay people’s lottery judgments. We con- clude by summarizing the main findings, pointing to future research, and comparing our findings to recent studies by Turri and Friedman (2014) and Friedman and Turri (2015).

Keywords
Knowledge; justified belief; lottery proposition; statistical evidence; testimonial evidence; behavioral decision-making

Journal
Philosophical Psychology: Volume 31, Issue 1

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