A Symbolic Investigation of Superspreaders

Citation

McCaig C, Begon M, Norman R & Shankland C (2011) A Symbolic Investigation of Superspreaders. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 73 (4), pp. 777-794. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-010-9603-7

Abstract
Superspreaders are an important phenomenon in the spread of infectious disease, accounting for a higher than average number of new infections in the population. We use mathematical models to compare the impact of supershedders and supercontacters on population dynamics. The stochastic, individual based models are investigated by conversion to deterministic, population level Mean Field Equations, using process algebra. The mean emergent population dynamics of the models are shown to be equivalent with and without superspreaders; however, simulations confirm expectations of differences in variability, having implications for individual epidemics.

Keywords
Changing scale; Mean field equation derivation from process algebra; Communicable diseases Mathematical models; Population biology Mathematical models

Journal
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology: Volume 73, Issue 4

• A Symbolic Investigation of Superspreaders.pdf