Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities

Citation

Burt G (2007) Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74 (6), pp. 731-749. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.08.010

Abstract
The scenario literature has limited discussion on the process of identifying the systemic conditions that could create disruption and/or discontinuity. This paper focuses on the integration of Christensen's theory of disruption and system analysis with the scenario methodology to develop a framework that provides an understanding of the underlying systemic conditions that create disruption and/or discontinuity. The framework is developed from a recent scenario case study to show the process of integrating these three theories and approaches. The case study reveals the systemic conditions inherent in the UK energy industry and how these conditions may portend discontinuity.

Keywords
scenarios; disruption; discontinuity; predetermined elements; Pierre Wack; Clayton Christensen; system-in-use; system analysis; systemic lock-in; resource dependency

Journal
Technological Forecasting and Social Change: Volume 74, Issue 6