Bayes' beacon: avalanche prediction, competence and evidence for competence. Modelling the effect of competent and incompetent predictions of highly improbable events

Citation

Ebert P & Photopoulou T (2013) Bayes' beacon: avalanche prediction, competence and evidence for competence. Modelling the effect of competent and incompetent predictions of highly improbable events. In: Proceedings, 2013 International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW), Grenoble, France. International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW) Proceedings. International Snow Science Workshop 2013, Grenoble, France, 07.10.2013-11.10.2013. Grenoble, France: Montana State University, pp. 363-370. http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=1817

Abstract
In this paper, we will discuss how competence can affect a person’s ability to avoid avalanches and present a way of modelling such competence. Given that the prior probability of getting caught in avalanches is fairly low for any skier (competent or not), we draw some consequences from the model using Bayes’ theorem for “everyday” situations.

Keywords
Decision-making in avalanche-terrain, Modelling competence, Bayes’ Theorem

• Avalanche_Proceedings.pdf