A family of process-based models to simulate landscape use by multiple taxa

Citation

Gardner E, Robinson RA, Julian A, Boughey K, Langham S, Tse-Leon J, Petrovskii S, Baker DJ, Bellamy C, Buxton A, Franks S, Monk C, Morris N, Park KJ & Fuentes-Montemayor E (2024) A family of process-based models to simulate landscape use by multiple taxa. Landscape Ecology, 39, Art. No.: 102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-024-01866-4

Abstract
Context Land-use change is a key driver of biodiversity loss. Models that accurately predict how biodiversity might be affected by land-use changes are urgently needed, to help avoid further negative impacts and inform landscape-scale restoration projects. To be effective, such models must balance model realism with computational tractability and must represent the different habitat and connectivity requirements of multiple species. Objectives We explored the extent to which process-based modelling might fulfil this role, examining feasibility for different taxa and potential for informing real-world decision-making. Methods We developed a family of process-based models (*4pop) that simulate landscape use by birds, bats, reptiles and amphibians, derived from the well-established poll4pop model (designed to simulate bee populations). Given landcover data, the models predict spatially-explicit relative abundance by simulating optimal home-range foraging, reproduction, dispersal of offspring and mortality. The models were co-developed by researchers, conservation NGOs and volunteer surveyors, parameterised using literature data and expert opinion, and validated against observational datasets collected across Great Britain. Results The models were able to simulate habitat specialists, generalists, and species requiring access to multiple habitats for different types of resources (e.g. breeding vs foraging). We identified model refinements required for some taxa and considerations for modelling further species/groups. Conclusions We suggest process-based models that integrate multiple forms of knowledge can assist biodiversity-inclusive decision-making by predicting habitat use throughout the year, expanding the range of species that can be modelled, and enabling decision-makers to better account for landscape context and habitat configuration effects on population persistence.

Keywords
Process-based modelling; Biodiversity; Foraging; Dispersal; Population dynamics; Land-use change

Notes
Additional authors: Silviu Petrovan, Katie Pitt, Rachel Taylor, Rebecca K. Turner, Steven J. R. Allain, Val Bradley, Richard K. Broughton, Mandy Cartwright, Kevin Clarke, Jon Cranfield, Robert Gandola, Tony Gent, Shelley A. Hinsley, Thomas Madsen, Chris Reading, John W. Redhead, Sonia Reveley, John Wilkinson, Carol Williams, Ian Woodward, John Baker, Philip Briggs, Sheila Dyason, Steve Langton, Ashlea Mawby, Richard F. Pywell, James M. Bullock

Journal
Landscape Ecology: Volume 39

• Published Version