Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines

Citation

Reade JJ, Singleton C & Brown A (2021) Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 68 (2), pp. 261-285. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12264

Abstract
This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.

Keywords
forecasting; prediction markets; regression models; statistical modelling

Journal
Scottish Journal of Political Economy: Volume 68, Issue 2