Review

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Details

Citation

Martínez-Vilalta J, García-Valdés R, Jump A, Vilà-Cabrera A & Mencuccini M (2023) Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants. New Phytologist. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.19138

Abstract
Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples on woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species’ rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g., compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g., exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for (i) trait coordination in a hierarchical context, (ii) trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure, and (iii) the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Keywords
colonization; drought tolerance; environmental context; modelling range dynamics; persistence; species distributions; trait coordination; trait variability

Notes
Output Status: Forthcoming

Journal
New Phytologist

StatusAccepted
FundersMinistry of Economy and Competitiveness (Spain) and Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Spain)
Date accepted by journal20/06/2023
URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/35261
ISSN0028-646X
eISSN1469-8137

People (1)

Professor Alistair Jump

Professor Alistair Jump

Dean of Natural Sciences, NS Management and Support