Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Citation

Sullivan MJP, Lewis SL, Affum-Baffoe K, Castilho C, Costa F, Cuni Sanchez A, Ewango CEN, Hubau W, Marimon B, Monteagudo-Mendoza A, Qie L, Sonké B, Vasquez Martinez R, Jeffery KJ & White LJT (2020) Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science, 368 (6493), pp. 869-874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578

Abstract
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (> 32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Notes
Additional co-authors: Timothy R Baker , Roel J W Brienen , Ted R Feldpausch, David Galbraith , Manuel Gloor , Yadvinder Malhi, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Miguel N Alexiades, Everton C Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Esteban Álvarez Dávila, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz E O C Aragão, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric J M M Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Peter Ashton, Gerardo Aymard, Fabrício B Baccaro, Lindsay F Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Plínio Barbosa Camargo, Jos Barlow, Jorcely Barroso, Jean-François Bastin, Sarah A Batterman, Hans Beeckman, Serge K Begne, Amy C Bennett , Erika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Lilian Blanc, Pascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Matt Bradford, Francis Q Brearley, Terry Brncic, Foster Brown, Benoit Burban, José Luís Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Carlos Céron, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Victor Chama Moscoso, Jerôme Chave, Eric Chezeaux, Connie J Clark, Fernanda Coelho de Souza , Murray Collins, James A Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Lola da Costa, Martin Dancák, Greta C Dargie , Stuart Davies, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Thales de Haulleville, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Jhon del Aguila Pasquel, Géraldine Derroire, Anthony Di Fiore, Jean-Louis Doucet, Aurélie Dourdain, Vincent Droissant, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Fernando Elias, Terry Erwin, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Sophie Fauset, Joice Ferreira, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Ernest Foli, Andrew Ford, Martin Gilpin , Jefferson S Hall, Keith C Hamer, Alan C Hamilton, David J Harris, Terese B Hart, Radim Hédl, Bruno Herault, Rafael Herrera, Niro Higuchi, Annette Hladik, Eurídice Honorio Coronado, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Walter Huaraca Huasco, Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Michelle Kalamandeen, Marie Noël Kamdem Djuikouo, Elizabeth Kearsley, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, Lip Khoon Kho, Timothy Killeen, Kanehiro Kitayama, Bente Klitgaard, Alexander Koch, Nicolas Labrière, William Laurance, Susan Laurance, Miguel E Leal, Aurora Levesley , Adriano J N Lima , Janvier Lisingo, Aline P Lopes, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez , Tom Lovejoy, Jon C Lovett, Richard Lowe, William E Magnusson, Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte, Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto, Ben Hur Marimon Jr, Andrew R Marshall, Toby Marthews, Simone Matias de Almeida Reis, Colin Maycock, Karina Melgaço, Casimiro Mendoza, Faizah Metali, Vianet Mihindou, William Milliken, Edward T A Mitchard, Paulo S Morandi, Hannah L Mossman , Laszlo Nagy, Henrique Nascimento, David Neill, Reuben Nilus, Percy Núñez Vargas, Walter Palacios, Nadir Pallqui Camacho, Julie Peacock, Colin Pendry, Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora, Georgia C Pickavance, John Pipoly, Nigel Pitman, Maureen Playfair, Lourens Poorter, John R Poulsen, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, Richard Preziosi, Adriana Prieto, Richard B Primack, Hirma Ramírez-Angulo, Jan Reitsma, Maxime Réjou-Méchain, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa, Lily Rodriguez Bayona, Anand Roopsind, Agustín Rudas, Ervan Rutishauser, Kamariah Abu Salim, Rafael P Salomão, Juliana Schietti, Douglas Sheil, Richarlly C Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, Camila Silva Valeria, Marcos Silveira, Murielle Simo-Droissart, Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, James Singh, Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva, Clement Stahl, Juliana Stropp, Rahayu Sukri, Terry Sunderland, Martin Svátek, Michael D Swaine, Varun Swamy, Hermann Taedoumg, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, David Taylor, Hans ter Steege, John Terborgh, Raquel Thomas, Sean C Thomas, Armando Torres-Lezama, Peter Umunay, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Geertje van der Heijden, Peter van der Hout, Peter van der Meer, Mark van Nieuwstadt, Hans Verbeeck, Ronald Vernimmen, Alberto Vicentini, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Emilio Vilanova Torre, Jason Vleminckx, Vincent Vos, Ophelia Wang, Simon Willcock, John T Woods, Verginia Wortel, Kenneth Young, Roderick Zagt, Lise Zemagho, Pieter A Zuidema, Joeri A Zwerts, Oliver L Phillips

Journal
Science: Volume 368, Issue 6493

• Accepted manuscript