Asking for frequencies rather than percentages increases the validity of subjective probability measures: Evidence from subjective life expectancy

Citation

Comerford DA (2019) Asking for frequencies rather than percentages increases the validity of subjective probability measures: Evidence from subjective life expectancy. Economics Letters, 180, pp. 33-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.04.001

Abstract
Survey measures of subjective expectations manifest anomalies in how people report percentages. The current research finds that frequency-based measures deliver more valid subjective probabilities of living to a given age than do questions that elicit a percentage chance.

Keywords
Expectations; Subjective probabilities; Survival expectations; Numeracy

Journal
Economics Letters: Volume 180

People

Professor David Comerford

Professor, Economics