Climate change predicted to end truffle production

The lucrative truffle industry is set to disappear within a generation due to climate change, according to new research by a University of Stirling academic.

A warmer and drier climate will be responsible for the decline – which will have a “huge economic, ecological and social impact” – and could be accelerated by other factors, such as heatwave events, forest fires, pests and diseases.

With the truffle species Tuber melanosporum trading at more than £1,000 per kilogram, the industry is worth hundreds of millions of pounds. Estimates have suggested that it could reach as much as £4.5 billion over the next 10 to 20 years, but the new study suggests a bleaker future for the sector.

Dr Paul Thomas, from the Faculty of Natural Sciences at Stirling, led the research, which is the first study to consider the future threat of climate change on European truffle production.

He said: “Our new study predicts that, under the most likely climate change scenario, European truffle production will decline by between 78 and 100 per cent between 2071 and 2100.

“However, the decline may well occur in advance of this date, when other climate change factors are taken into account, such as heatwaves, forest fires, drought events, pests and disease.

“We risk losing an industry worth hundreds of millions of pounds to the economy. However, the socio-economic impact of the predicted decline could be substantially larger as truffle harvesting and related activities form a key component of local history and cultural activity.”